FOMCは予想通り据え置き

相場 FX

FOMCは、CMEが算出している利上げ予想確率(15%程度)通り、金利を据え置いた。

「ザラ場で感じた違和感は正解　〜　日銀イールドカーブ・コントロールで円安になったのは一時的」で述べた通り、日本の後場引け後から欧州時間開始にかけて、円高ドル安方向の動きだったが、FOMCを受けてドル安が加速した。
※）円については殆ど反応なしで、水準に変化は見られなかった。

ドル円のリスクリバーサルは「2016年9月21日（水）の日銀金融政策決定会合による施策　〜　マイナス金利0.1％を維持　長期金利は0％程度に誘導(長短金利の操作を行うイールドカーブ・コントロールを導入)」で述べたときは1週間物はドルコールオーバーだったが、これもドルプットオーバーへ。ドル円上昇へのケアは無くなった。ここから一段安となると考えている。
WTIは、弱気の意見が多いけど、今のところはまだ上昇だと思っているんだけどなー。

1週間。

1ヶ月。

今回の据え置き決定だが、3名が反対している。


今回の決定をチキンｗと批判したっぽいｗ。ローゼングレンが入っているな。
大分荒れたのかもしれない。

これまで経済指標を見る限り経済活動はは軒並み良いという印象だったが、イエレンはNOと。

GDPの期待値はこれらしいので、今後の１つの注目点になるかもしれない。

ただ、この辺のツイートが分からない。
労働環境は改善していくと言っていると思う。

しかし、経済環境が改善しているから利上げしないと。

良好な経済環境をオーバーヒートさせたくないから、利上げしないとのこと。つまり、欧州も日本も低金利の中、米国だけ利上げは出来ないということだろう。やっぱりね。

ただ、18万人の雇用は堅調だが、これは将来続くかどうかは不安定だとも。この辺、結局経済環境が良いと思っているのか、それほどでもないと思っているのか、よーわからんわ。

2016年9月22時点でのFedWatchは次。

概要はこちら。


公式サイトからの引用はこちら。

Press Release「For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT」

Release Date: September 21, 2016

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell;and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action were: Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.

Implementation Note issued September 21, 2016

2016 Monetary Policy Releases

「Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation」

Release Date: September 21, 2016

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on September 21, 2016:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System left unchanged the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 0.50 percent.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective September 22, 2016, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1/4 to 1/2 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 0.25 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.

The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction and to continue reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions."

More information regarding open market operations may be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website.

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System took no action to change the discount rate (the primary credit rate), which remains at 1.00 percent.
This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement